“How could the person who presided over such a disaster get elected?
“Blame the opposition first…the three opposing candidates, all with similar political leanings, wouldn’t drop out and throw their support behind another candidate. So Ortega ended up with about 40% of the vote, and the other candidates split the rest of the voters. Ridiculous.
“The more important question is where to from here? My purest thoughts are probably the ones I e-mailed to my friend who is a knowledgeable investor. I’ll share them with you verbatim now:
“1) If I was down there and owned a business in Nicaragua catering to Americans, I’d close it now and come home. Even if Ortega turns out okay, Americans will still avoid him.
“2) I think the property market will go ‘no bid’ immediately.
“But the question is should an American with real estate SELL NOW and beat the crowd out the door? Or should an American step up and BUY NOW when it’s no bid?
“The logical thing for Ortega to do for his country would be to honor property rights. But asking for logic from Latin dictators is a bad trade. I don’t have the nerve to step up and buy now, even if it’s no bid and you could get a ridiculous deal. I just don’t have any edge in that trade.
“I don’t have much on the line there now (just one oceanfront lot), so I’m going to wait and see how bad he turns out to be in his first few months in office, before I build anything. I don’t plan to sell, as I hate to sell when things are ‘no bid,’ but I could change my mind.
“There is the small chance that Ortega won’t be a nutcase. I think if you were to sell, you ought to do it soon, as everyone else that owns will be hanging their hopes on this small chance of a kinder, gentler Ortega.
“Meantime, Ortega’s historical track record is to be feared. I will let you know more as I learn more and talk to friends down there. For now, I’m holding and hoping…just where I don’t want to be.”
That from friend and colleague Steve Sjuggerud the morning after the recent presidential election in Nicaragua. Steve, speaking to readers of his “Daily Wealth” e-letter service, voiced the sentiments of many, I’m sure.
I think his analysis is all wet…but that’s ok. What’s a little difference of opinion between friends?
In fact, we enjoy nothing more than a good debate. So we’ve planned one, on this subject, for Tuesday, Dec. 19. We’ve invited Steve to join us on the line for our “What Now? Nicaragua With Ortega Back in the Hot Seat” Teleconference…along with other friends invested and interested in this market, including property developers Mike Cobb and Lori Estrada, and myself.
Sure, Mike and Lori have serious stakes in making sure this recent turn of political events in Nicaragua is spun rosy. Still, they’re on the ground and can report from the scene the fallout (if any) of the election results.
And Steve (we hope) will tell us all why we’re nuts not to be worried.
Should be a good time…and invaluable for any investor (current or would-be) in the New Nicaragua. I’m looking forward to it. Click here for details on how to be on the line yourself.
Lief Simon
Real Estate Editor, International Living
[Don't miss out. Get your free IL Postcards subscription today.]
P.S. For the record, I’m not worried at all. I have a theory that supports my position that President Ortega won’t mean the end of free market recovery in Nicaragua…which I’ll share during the Teleconference.
P.P.S. Our marketing team asks that I remind you: Publisher’s Roundtable Members are invited to join us on the line Dec. 19 as our guests. This, like all other publishing products, are yours free. International Living Lifetime Society Members and members of Latin America Insider are invited to dial in for just $39.99. Paid-up subscribers to the print edition of International Living, the cost to you is $44.99. All others pay $49.99.
