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The plain fact is that the world is awash in oil…for the moment. So it’s no great surprise that the oil price is tumbling, as are the shares of oil and gas companies. But I think we’re getting close to a buying opportunity. Global oil supply is already 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) higher than it was a year ago. Meanwhile, global oil demand is only 700,000 bpd higher than it was a year ago. Don’t panic—this is a seasonal thing. The difference this time around is that we already have a 2 million bpd oil surplus on the market, and production in the U.S. and Middle East looks set to rise through next year. The good news is that not all energy companies are loaded with debt. In fact, some should do quite nicely. But they’re all getting pounded lower now. Of course, that means we’re coming to an incredible buying opportunity in select stocks.
It’s a sun-drenched morning as I stand at a lookout point above the town of Mijas. Below me, the gleaming white buildings, with their roofs of rust-red tile, tumble down the mountainside. The pine-covered hills of the Sierra de Mijas mountain range reach up into the clear sky to my right. On my left, I can see the Costa del Sol—the Sun Coast—with the glittering Mediterranean Sea stretching to the horizon. It’s a comfortable 66 F here in Mijas, which is located in southernmost Spain. With more than 2,800 hours of sunshine a year around these parts, it’s the perfect place to escape a harsh winter back home.
The decade leading up to 2006 saw Ireland suffer through one of the biggest real estate bubbles on earth. The real estate market stalled in 2006/2007, amid rumors that transfer taxes were set to be reduced. Then in 2008 the crisis hit. In 2009, the global financial crisis rolled through, flattening Ireland’s entire banking sector and economy. In your July 2011 edition, I reported how Irish real estate was available at a discount of 80% on peak prices. Today, Ireland’s real estate market is bouncing back. News stories are filled with talk of housing shortages and fast-rising values. These reports are correct. There has been a strong surge in demand for family homes in desirable areas of Ireland’s main cities. The big buying opportunity here has passed, but right now Irish real estate is a tale of two markets.
A war looms in Asia, though you won’t have heard of it. This will be a war fought for resources and strategic positioning in the global economy of tomorrow: a war for economic dominance in what is emerging as the most crucial region of the world. The challenge for us—investors—comes in knowing where to go to profit from this new war in Asia. And I know where. Burma…a country less than two years removed from a military junta that ruled, often violently, since 1962. The aging military leaders have finally released their death-grip on power and now businesses from pretty much every major country you can think of—Australia, Japan, China, Canada, Singapore, Korea, India, Great Britain, Thailand—are beginning to swarm to opportunities that exist everywhere.
Isn’t there something rather seductive about a closed box, its lid just begging to be opened, taunting us with the promise of secrets held within? We all harbor an inner Pandora—the so-called “first mortal woman” who couldn’t help but open the box. Mythology tells the tale of Jupiter—or Zeus as the Greeks know him—sealing up all the world’s ills inside a great casket. He entrusted this vessel to his messenger, Mercury, asking him to take it to the ends of the earth. After an arduous journey and exhausted by his efforts, Mercury stopped to rest and laid the box at Pandora’s feet. He asked her to look after it for him but warned her not to open it.
“Chinese stocks have the potential to deliver triple-digit returns within 24 months,” I explained in a recent CNBC interview. That was a bold thing to say on camera… but I believe it’s absolutely possible… In fact, twice in the last decade, Chinese stocks have soared by triple digits within two years. When China goes up, it can soar… In China’s 2006-2007 bull market, Chinese stocks soared by 500%. It soared by more than 100% in its 2009 bull market as well. Importantly, Chinese stocks today are just as cheap as they were when they started their last two triple-digit runs in 2006 and 2009. They are hated, too… Investors have been avoiding them for the last year. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are now in a definite uptrend. This is the ideal setup for big gains… So how can you trade it?
Little Uruguay is a country that has advantages for producing food. It has good productive land, and a temperate climate allows the cultivation of up to three crops a year on average. Thanks to increasing wealth and food consumption in emerging markets, farmland here could generate a yield of between 3% and 9% (depending on the type of land and management option you choose), and also enjoy long-term appreciation. And Uruguay is where the small guy can directly get in on this food trend with ownership control. Uruguay has an advanced domestic farm industry. The domestic infrastructure of farm management companies, routes to market, and professional services caters for foreign investors.
To most folks, names like Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol, and Roy Lichtenstein conjure up multi-million-dollar price tags that seem well beyond the means of mere mortals. That’s true of their paintings, but what about their prints? Original fine-art prints fall into multiple disciplines. Those you’ll come across most often include etchings, engravings, lithographs, linocuts, screen prints, and woodcuts. And they all share one thing in common—the artist is directly involved in the creation of the image.
Oil prices have fallen hard this year. The same thing happened in the first half of last year due to soaring production. The reasons for the decline in price are fourfold. Last year, U.S. production rose to its highest levels since the 1990s. Furthermore, OPEC saw its production leap to a nearly two-year high in September, averaging 30.96 million bpd (barrels per day). Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its global oil growth forecasts for 2015 as a result of second quarter consumption sliding to a 2.5-year low.
Imagine a morning walk that takes you along a winding path shaded by towering pines. Nestled in the woodland around you are homes with pleasant gardens, flower-filled pots and bougainvillea-draped walls. A few minutes is all it takes to reach the low-slung dunes. You pause on top to take in the view: 18 miles of brilliant golden sands fringing the warm tropical waters of the South China Sea. About 10 miles out are the Cham Islands, a biosphere reserve where you can dive on coral reefs and explore the ancient ruins of the Cham civilization.
We typically see Path of Progress opportunities in places that are on the up…we usually discover distressed opportunities by finding high-quality inventory somewhere that’s broadly in crisis. It’s rare that we see the convergence of both these trends—but today that’s the opportunity we have along a stretch of Spain’s Costa del Sol. San Pedro is a pleasant sleepy Spanish town of leafy squares and pedestrian streets. Marbella is 12 minutes away (by car…25 minutes by public bus).
Unless the European crisis is news to you, you probably know that Greece just suffered through its own Great Depression. Its economy shrank for six years in a row. Economic output fell by a quarter. The unemployment rate is 27%. And asset prices collapsed. No wonder, then, that some of the most successful investors are in Greece picking up bargains—including Dan Loeb’s Third Point, Prem Watsa’s Fairfax Financial, Seth Klarman’s Baupost, and John Paulson’s Paulson & Co.
As an antiques enthusiast, I like to ask dealers with different areas of expertise what’s hot and what’s not. A Spanish buff told me recently that Spanish Civil War memorabilia, once considered inappropriate and politically embarrassing, has now become collectible. Spain doesn’t have a great tradition of preserving reminders from its recent past. The Civil War was a complex and tragic period in the country’s history that divided families and set brother against brother.
Right now, you could buy your own piece of property right off the beach in Brazil…in a location where millionaires are putting their vacation homes…and all it will cost you is a few hundred dollars a month. The beaches here are spectacular—brilliant-white sand stretches for miles. Along that long stretch of coastline, multi-million-dollar homes are dotted. Over the past decade this part of Brazil has enjoyed an economic transformation. Very little has happened here—but now we’re seeing an opportunity.
The best estimate points to a world population several billion larger than today’s just a few decades from now—Earth may host 9.6 billion people in 2050, according to the United Nations. This population growth is all going to be a strain on Earth’s already stretched-thin resources. So how do you invest in a world like the future we seem to be hurtling toward? A world of rising population and increasingly scarce resources?
“The developer here is in jail…” is something I heard a lot. It was alarming…but in a way, it was reassuring, too. Puerto Vallarta—one of Mexico’s most popular expat destinations— is home to an estimated 10,000 North Americans living here full-time. They chose Puerto Vallarta for good reasons. Puerto Vallarta sits at the foot of the grand Sierra Madre mountains that sweep down to the Bay of Banderas. It’s a warm and sunny spot with tropical beaches, fresh ocean breezes, and temperatures that average 73° F to 83° F all year.
I walked into the main Credit Suisse branch in Chicago and told the doorman I wanted to open a Swiss bank account. I was led to a private office overlooking the Chicago skyline. Was asked for my minimum deposit. Being just 31 at the time, I played it conservative and started with just $2,000 (about $4,300 in today’s dollars).
The bidding in the auction room stood at 2 million Hong Kong dollars—and all eyes were on me. Ceiling fans offered some respite from the stifling heat outside, but the room still seemed unbearably hot. Some 40 or 50 collectors and dealers, many of whom had made the trip from mainland China, jostled for elbow room. A bank of auction assistants manned telephones and laptops, processing bids from around the world.
Sales for the 1,000 most sought after single-malt scotches have risen around 175% since 2008. That’s based on auction figures compiled by Scottish company, Whisky Highland, which track the market. In 2013, some 20,211 bottles were sold at auction, up from 5,431 in 2010.
I’m a daydreamer and a traveler at heart. One of my favorite ways to pass time is to imagine where else I might want to live one day. A recurring dream involves a cabin in the jungle where I would wake to the songs of carefree birds, the chatter of mischievous monkeys, and the rustle of a light breeze playing through overhead palm fronds.
If you have preconceptions about the Dominican Republic, put them aside. Most North American tourists head to the beautiful beaches and all-inclusive resorts of Punta Cana. But the opportunity for profitable real estate investing is elsewhere— somewhere a beach-town pad could be a great earner when you’re not using it.
Bram Stoker never visited Transylvania. Instead, the Irish-born novelist relied on dusty old volumes from London’s libraries and second-hand stories from Ármin Vámbéry, a Hungarian writer and traveler with whom he was well acquainted, to inspire and inform his neck-biting masterpiece, Dracula.
You may think of rare books as dusty old leather-bound tomes with unintelligible text in Latin or some ancient Gothic typeface. But one of the fastest-growing areas of the rare-book world in the last 30 years has actually been in first editions of 20th century literature in English.
Romania acceded to the European Union back in 2007… just in time for the global financial crisis to bite it in the neck. GDP growth, which at a robust 6% to 7% during the previous few years had been among the highest on the continent, promptly collapsed. The economy contracted by a whopping 6.5% in 2009 and remained in the red the following year. It’s been in a state of tentative recovery ever since.
It’s a quiet day in late June on the beach in Deauville. As I walk along the water’s edge, golden sand crunching beneath my toes, it almost feels as if the mile-long beach is all mine. Tranquility reigns right now, but a change is coming. Near the boardwalk, row after row of multi-colored beach parasols, elegant as Ralph Lauren models, are standing as ready as soldiers.
Natchi and her husband own the biggest guesthouse in town and business is booming. Wind energy is a big deal in this part of Brazil. When I stayed in their place—midweek during off-season—the place was packed to the rafters with 45 wind-energy workers. This is Icaraí (pronounced ick-areye), the closest town to the nearby wind farms. But sheltered in lush vegetation and right on the empty beach…this certainly doesn’t feel like a frontier energy town. It’s a tropical paradise.
I believe we all have a bit of the “collector” gene inside of us. We gather things throughout our lives…things capable of reminding us of a good time or a pleasant memory. It’s a way of capturing the moment to be relived at some point in the future. My Dad had the “collector” gene for sure. He collected mugs, decals, spoons, coins, stamps, Emmett Kelly paintings, Boy Scout council strip patches (CSP’s), Hummel figurines…and the list goes on.
Japan is an antique collector’s paradise. From unusual wedding gifts to snazzy souvenirs, the antique shops and local markets in central Tokyo have it all—and they are surprisingly affordable. Most of what’s sold is in excellent condition, even in the flea markets. Here are some items to look out for and where to hunt for them.
China is changing. That much we all know. And in the last few years a major shift has been in people’s diet. Spurred on by improved incomes, the growing Chinese middle class has developed a hunger for western-style foods—that means more meat and dairy.
South of Colombia’s Coffee Triangle, the Pan-American Highway wends through the foothills of the Central Andean mountain range and into the Cauca Valley. Haciendas, orchards, and colorful fruit stands line the road and the air becomes warm and moist. Just past Tuluá, the sky seems to expand and the horizon fills with sugar-cane fields as far as the eye can see.
I regularly meet readers who are smart and cautious when it comes to buying a property back home. They hire an attorney, they check their sale contract carefully, and they investigate every little thing that could affect the value of the property. But for some strange reason, when they’re buying overseas, these same people forget their common sense.
Distressed real estate in my favorite European markets is one of the hottest plays on my radar today. In Spain, this crisis opportunity has handed us some tremendous deals. Next door in Portugal, a similar situation is coming together—specifically in the Algarve. As the market price of certain real estate has fallen, the cost to rent that property has dropped by a much smaller percentage.
Big changes are underway in India. Did you notice? The Indian stock market certainly has. After going nowhere for the better part of six years, Indian stocks finally kicked into gear a few months ago. After going nowhere for the better part of six years, Indian stocks finally kicked into gear a few months ago.
The skeleton can come out of the cupboard, the deer antlers can go back on the wall, the umbrellas can return to the elephant’s-foot stand—they are all right on trend. Not since the Victorians stuffed and showed off whatever they hunted, shot, or fished has taxidermy been so in vogue.
You learned yesterday about how you can make $2,000 to $3,000 on one online deal, buying and selling popular consumer products. When I talk about earning money online, most people want to know the answers to three simple questions: 1. Can anyone do it? 2. Can I make money part-time? 3. Do I need a lot of cash to get started?
Land in the Tulum area on the southern edge of Mexico’s Riviera Maya can be a strong opportunity…as long as it’s the right land. On my recent scouting trip I put boots on the ground at more than a dozen interesting communities (including some planned lot communities). As long-time readers of Real Estate Trend Alert know, Tulum is stunning. It’s home to some of the world’s finest white-powder beaches…backed by palm trees that rustle in the Caribbean breezes.
Thanks to Europe’s financial and economic crisis, you’ll find some of the best real estate values in the best parts of Europe right now—and some of the best opportunities to profit. Specifically, the deals are to be found in Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. These places were hit hard by the crisis—and pricings finally reflect that.
Las Terrenas on the Dominican Republic’s Samana peninsula is a little piece of paradise. It boasts 19 miles of walkable, public beach, palm trees, warm breezes, and stars so bright it feels like you could pluck them from the sky. This isn’t a manufactured beach or resort. It’s a laid-back, cultured getaway. In town, behind and between the palm trees, are chic cafés and restaurants run by French and Italian expats.
I spend up to two weeks a month scouting out the best real estate opportunities for Pathfinder. It’s part of my job. And I enjoy every minute of it. Because I spend so much time on the road, I’m a huge fan of vacation rentals. I get more space than a hotel room and a lot more privacy. And I get to experience life as a local, buying groceries and eating at cafés and restaurants close by.
Right now, in Mexico, there’s a place where rich celebrities, like Cameron Diaz, Demi Moore, and Orlando Bloom come to hang out…but where you can still buy a condo without the millionaire-price tag.