IL Postcard

Mexico Presidential Election Still Undecided

Date: 07/02/2006

Dear Mexico First Alert Reader,

Mexico's presidential election took place yesterday without a major hitch.

Unfortunately, the hitch came as votes were being tallied. Today, this hotly contested race remains just that; as officials say the election is too close to call.

A clear winner was expected to have emerged shortly after the polls closed. But the race was so tight, electoral authorities say the country will now have to wait until a recount on Wednesday.

As was indicated by recent polls, the presidential candidates of the ruling National Action Party (PAN), and the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), ran such a close race that neither the Mexican news media nor the election institute could declare a winner. Federal Electoral Institute President Luis Carlos Ugalde spoke to the nation at 11p.m. last night, to declare an impasse.

He said the committee that ran the quick count survey for the federation was unable to determine a winner, based on preliminary results and that--following procedures outlined by Mexico's election law--the federation would initiate a final count of all votes on Wednesday, July 5.

Ugalde called on political parties and candidates to respect the process and not make any statements until the final results are verified. Moments later, Mexican President Vicente Fox took to the airwaves to reiterate Ugalde's statement. He called for calm, patience, and respect for the electoral process.

Still, both leading candidates have announced themselves as victorious.

On the left, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador insists his party's exit polls showed him the victor by 500,000 votes. Running as "a man of the people," the hugely popular former Mayor of Mexico City has pledged to end two decades of free-market reforms and pull millions out of poverty with welfare benefits and new jobs in infrastructure projects.

His rival, Harvard-educated conservative Felipe Calderon of Fox's ruling National Action Party, maintains independent exit polls show him ahead. He has told supporters he has "no doubt" he won the race. A lawyer and career politician, Calderon has promised to create millions of jobs with pro-business reforms, more foreign investment, and a boom in construction and house building.

Mexico only won full democracy at its last presidential election, exactly six years ago, when PAN's Fox was elected, breaking the stronghold by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which had governed Mexico for 71 years. This year's election has been historical in many ways. Not only does it remain the most competitive election in Mexican history, but it is the first presidential election to be presided over by a ruling party other than PRI…and PAN and the Fox administration are keenly aware that any calls of election misconduct will harm the party's legacy as well as its future ambitions. This was also the first year that Mexicans living overseas were allowed to vote from abroad. Of the estimated 6 million to 7 million Mexicans of voting age in the United States, however, only 40,000 registered to vote by mail--a number much lower than expected. Analysts say the registration process was too tedious, and that Mexicans living abroad were concerned about fraud in the process, tempered by apathy and indifference. Still, these 40,000 votes could be crucial in a tight race. We hope to find out on Wednesday-- we'll keep you posted.

Best Regards,

Marzena Romanowicz
International Living / Mexico

For answers to your questions about Mexico, please e-mail our office at Mexico@InternationalLiving.com.

P.S. Our guide to living in Mexico, Mexico: The Owner's Manual, offers a chapter on the politics of Mexico, which has the largest economy in Latin America and is the U.S.' third-largest trading partner. The 200+-page manual also offers information for expats about health care, insurance, visas, and more--including a complete ratings guide to help you determine where in Mexico the best place is for you. Order it here.