Political Winds Are Shifting Around the World

Earlier this year, The Economist dubbed this the “year of global elections.”

Seventy percent of the world’s population is voting this year. That includes the United States, the European Union, India, and a host of smaller countries, including my own, South Africa. Since then, two major European countries—the UK and France—have called snap elections.

The Economist framed this spate of electioneering as a crucial test of world opinion. Which way will voters go? Will existing trends be reinforced, or will electorates demand change?

As a keen observer of politics—who cast his first vote of the year a fortnight ago here in Cape Town— I’ve come to my own conclusion: never take political outcomes for granted.

So far, 2024 has seen results nobody saw coming.

Here at the southern end of Africa, the African National Congress suffered a catastrophic 17% decline since the last election in 2019. That’s significantly worse than anyone expected. Most pundits saw them getting just under 50%, but they barely made 40%. Although some ANC voters shifted to centrist parties, the bulk fled to right-wing nativist outfits.

In India, Mahendra Modi’s BJP party likewise suffered a huge decline since the last round of elections. Like the ANC in South Africa, his government will now depend on the support of smaller coalition parties, limiting his freedom of action. Centrist parties were the main beneficiaries.

The recent EU election delivered big gains for the hard right, including France’s National Rally, an anti-immigration Eurosceptic party. President Emmanuel Macron took the honorable route, calling a snap election for the end of the month. His centrist Renaissance Party is projected to lose badly, handing France over to the type of nativist governments currently running Hungary and Italy.

Just across the English Channel, however, voters are headed in the opposite direction. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called a snap election for 4 July. Polls predict Labour will win by nearly 20%.

Anyone looking for signs of a uniform ideological shift in all of this will be frustrated. Countries that have long leaned left, like France and South Africa, are shifting right. Nations long governed by right-wing parties, like the UK and India, are moving in the other direction.

As I’m sure The Economist will soon report, the only common thread is dislike of incumbents. Everywhere, voters are demanding change even if the direction of that change varies considerably.

Anyone contemplating an international move or foreign investment should take keen interest in all of this. When change comes unexpectedly, it can upset the best laid plans.

For example, anyone considering moving to France could find the process far more difficult under a right-wing, anti-immigrant government. Who knows what changes they might bring to the country’s visa systems?

The UK has already made major changes affecting international migration. The country has already abolished its residential investment and retirement visas. The Tories surprisingly announced that they were going to wind down the country’s non-dom tax regime, which allowed wealthy people to escape taxes on most of their global income. Now such people are facing the prospect of a Labour government, which will raise taxes to try to revive the country’s social safety net.

Closer to my home, the shocking decline of the ANC means investors and potential migrants (including digital nomads and retirees) have no way to know whether existing policies will continue. Depending on who the ANC chooses as coalition partners come up things could either go very well for the country and the economy, or very badly indeed.

For Americans, the election season is just beginning. But the stakes there are high. Half the country fears a return to the chaos of the Trump years. The other half is worried about increased taxation and other Democrat priorities. Either way, thousands of Americans will start thinking about a move abroad.

I’ve got news for them, though. Waiting until after the election may be too late. Sure, you’ll still be able to find opportunities to live and thrive abroad. But with the world changing at a rapid clip who knows which of them will be available to you after November?

As I found over and again with the people who consult with me in my global citizen service, getting an early start—especially at a time of rapid and unpredictable change— is the single most important thing any potential migrant can do to ensure success.